Atlanta Braves -- A Fine Mess

Image via WikipediaSince I started this blog a few weeks ago, I've avoided any talk of the Atlanta Braves mainly through a desire not to jinx them as they've steadily fallen in the standings.

It wasn't that long ago that they had a pretty sizable lead in the NL East -- maybe as high as eight or nine games.  But injuries caught up with them and the lead started dwindling away.  As the Braves cooled off, the Phillies got hot.  The Braves' division lead got smaller and smaller until the Phillies finally caught them and left them in the dust.  The Phillies clinched the division a few days ago.

But the Braves always had the wild card to fall back on.  Just two days ago, they had a two game lead over the Padres with just three games left in the regular season.  After two more losses to the Phillies and two Padres wins over the Giants, the Braves and Padres are now tied for the wild card with only one game left for each team.

On Saturday, a crowd of 54,296 (a Turner Field regular season record) turned out to watch the Braves pay an emotional pregame tribute to retiring manager Bobby Cox.  Afterwards, the Braves promptly went out and lost 7-0.  The game was scoreless until the 7th and (for the second straight game) turned on a throwing error by Brooks Conrad.

To further complicate matters, the Padres are also battling the Giants for the NL West title.  The Giants are now 91-70 and lead that division by just one game.  The Braves and Padres are 90-71.

A few scenarios for the last day of the regular season:

The Braves have to be rooting for the Giants to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Padres.  If they do and the Braves win, the Giants win the NL West and the Braves win the wild card.

If the Giants win and the Braves lose, the Braves and Padres will play in Atlanta Monday to determine the wild card.

If the Padres win and the Braves lose, the Padres will win the NL West and the Giants will win the wild card.

If the Padres and Braves both win, all three teams will finish with 91-71 records.  The Padres and Giants would play Monday to determine the NL West winner.  The loser would travel to Atlanta for a game Tuesday to determine the wild card.

As much as I would like to see the Braves win one more World Series title for Bobby, I just don't see it happening.  If they even make the playoffs (which is looking more and more doubtful by the minute), I don't think they will advance very far.  They've especially had troubles with the Phillies lately and just won't be able to match up if they both advance to play for the league championship.

Tim Hudson (16-9) gets the crucial start for the Braves Sunday.  Cole Hamels (12-11) will get the start for the Phillies, but is expected to stay in the game for just a couple of innings, a little tuneup for the postseason.  Roy Oswalt (13-13) should also get a few innings in.  Mat Latos (14-9) starts for the Padres against the Giants' Jonathan Sanchez (12-9).